Calling the election? Early guesses.

Is it too soon to call the Nov. 30th UNA Board of Directors' election? Well, maybe/maybe not. Given this is an election that is done through mail-in ballots that started arriving in mailboxes on Nov. 8th we can assume a lot of the voting already took place by now (though given mail speed the envelopes will likely arrive in greater numbers this week).

A lot depends upon how effective the various slates are at reaching beyond the typical 350-500 core UNA voters. The smaller the voter turnout the more likely the 'current directors' slate will win their four spots back (Holmes, Kang, McCutcheon, Watson). However, there are some wild cards here - the student AMS Slate for example could rock the boat and place up to three candidates on the Board (pretty certain they will win a Hawthorn Place seat, maybe a Hampton as well). 

Also unclear is the impact of the multicultural committee/community engagement committee that has historically managed a network outside the english language social media that has a significant impact in the UNA elections. In some elections that network has linked with the core older UNA vote and been decisive in electing candidates. The implication will be strongest here in Wesbrook local area. 

The implication of the faculty/staff housing association is also important and has played an important role in getting candidates elected in the past. I am willing to bet the election of one Wesbrook Place candidate will be thanks to that group of voters. 

The easiest candidate elections to call are, I think, Watson, McCutcheon, and Proust, all from Hawthorn Place. As long as they all win more votes than the two Hampton Place candidates I'm willing to bet these three will be elected. But, those are the only names I will venture to guess as any other predication is a lot less certain and is based purely on speculation.

As for the two Hampton Place candidates, Holmes and Ngieng, it will be hard to tell which of them will get elected. I'm willing to bet at least one of them will get elected. Holmes is  favoured to win, but experience isn't everything in an election and if he is over confident and not engaged in campaigning he may find himself surprised on election night. But Ngieng will only win if she can really attract a lot of new voters to overcome Holmes' establishment advantage. She has a lot of ground to cover to make it onto the board whereas Holmes can gently trot over the finish line to win.